Just the first four months of the war in Gaza has produced greenhouse gas emissions of between 420,000 and 650,000 tonnes – equivalent to the total annual emissions of nearly 26 states – with fuel burned by Israeli fighter jets on bombing missions estimated to emit over 157,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), confirmed climate scientists. But so far, none of these emissions have figured in the national carbon inventories of any states.
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Now, international law experts representing the state of Palestine at the world’s largest climate hearings have argued that the “deleterious impacts” of these military activities, which affect Palestine directly as well as the world at large, should be taken into account when considering national climate responsibility.
All emissions from armed conflict and other military activities should be reported by states as part of their obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said legal counsel in the Palestinian delegation Dr Nilüfer Oral. Every state that does not exercise “the appropriate level of due diligence” to control or reduce its emissions, including from military activities and occupation, should incur international responsibility for its failure to do so, she said.
Singapore-based international law expert Dr Nilufer Oral presenting her case at the Hague. Image: ICJ
Speaking before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague last week, Oral, a seasoned negotiator and legal practitioner who heads up the Centre for International Law (CIL) at the National University of Singapore told judges that there is a need for clear guidance from the world’s top court on how international humanitarian law is applied in the context of Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip.
“In particular, we request that the Court clarify that the environment, including carbon sinks and reservoirs, is a civilian object and that the rules of distinction, proportionality and precaution apply to armed conflict and other military activities that generate greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to climate change,” she said. Oral was citing fundamental principles of international humanitarian law that protect “civilian objects”, such as schools, hospitals and public infrastructure, when states are engaged in warfare.
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In most cases, states do not report greenhouse gas emissions from armed conflicts or include them in their total emissions. According to climate scientists, this results in a significant undercounting of the overall emissions… and thus understates the magnitude of the problem.
Ammar Hijazi, ambassador of Palestine to international organisations in The Hague
Over the past two weeks, more than 100 countries and international organisations have presented their arguments in a landmark case in which the ICJ has been asked to give an advisory opinion on the obligations of states in respect of climate change.
The hearings, which concluded last Friday, saw more vulnerable states at the frontlines of the climate crisis locking horns with richer countries and arguing that decisions made by historically higher-emitting countries have unjustly devastated the lives of their peoples. In Asia, the Philippines and Bangladesh have asked the top court to recognise climate harm as a violation of international law.
In their submissions last week, Palestine and Mexico went further to spotlight the impacts of military-related emissions, and urged the court to recognise that conflict and climate change can often exacerbate one another.
Israel’s war on Gaza, stretching into its 15th month, has now killed more than 45,000 people, according to the latest statistics shared by health officials of the besieged and battered Palestinian enclave. Calls to reconstruct the Gaza Strip, buried under tonnes of debris as schools, shelters and hospitals are targeted by Israeli forces are becoming louder, though the UN has estimated that this will cost at least US$40 billion and any reconstruction effort will likely be the largest since 1945.
“Significant undercount” of emissions
In his opening statement at the climate hearings, Ammar Hijazi, ambassador of Palestine to international organisations in The Hague, said that despite its great importance, the impacts on climate caused by armed conflict and other military activities, including situations of occupation, has not yet been adequately addressed.
Hijazi cited the latest assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that there is high certainty that global warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels after 2030, even if current pledges by parties under the Paris Agreement are fulfilled. “As ominous as this conclusion is, it understates the problem,” he added.
He said: “In most cases, states do not report greenhouse gas emissions from armed conflicts or include them in their total emissions. According to climate scientists, this results in a significant undercounting of the overall emissions… and thus understates the magnitude of the problem.”
For example, the ambassador highlighted how Palestine is responsible for less than 0.001 per cent of global emissions yet grapples with unprecedented, severe climate events. “Israel’s illegal occupation also curtails Palestine’s ability to support an effective international climate policy.”
Palestine is taking action to reduce 17.5 per cent of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 under the current status quo, but its goal could be raised to 26.6 per cent if Israel’s occupation of the territory ends, Hijazi shared. The state had submitted its first Nationally Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC in October 2021.
“There can be no doubt that the ongoing illegal Israeli belligerent occupation of Palestine and its discriminatory policies have clear negative climate effects.”
Kate Mackintosh, executive director of the UCLA Law Promise Institute Europe and another legal counsel on the team representing Palestine, highlighted how the tonnage of missiles dropped in just six months has surpassed the World War II bombing of Dresden, Hamburg and London combined, and that these activities have emitted significant amounts of greenhouse gases.
These numbers also only represent “a fraction of the total conflict-related greenhouse gas emissions” into the atmosphere, she said. “Post-war reconstruction following other armed conflicts has been found to produce exponentially more emissions than the conduct of hostilities,” she argued. Estimates show that factoring in reconstruction would push total emissions produced to over 52 million tonnes of CO2e.
The legal case to secure an advisory opinion from the ICJ is led by the Global South, including the small Pacific island nation of Vanuatu. ICJ will issue its opinion likely in 2025, and although the decision is not legally-binding, it could potentially be a key reference for climate change-driven litigation around the world.
