This is not some doomsday forecast; this is actually possible.
A Super El Niño is coming to the Philippines, with its peak to happen in the final quarter of 2026. And given the pattern observed in the past few years, this will coincide with the time of the year when super-typhoons are likely to hit as well.
Think back to recent instances of climate extremes hitting right after the other — from two years ago, when the nation was ravaged by six storms in a span of four weeks, or just last year, when typhoons Kalmaegi (Tino) and Fungwong (Uwan) struck a few days from each other.
Is the Philippine government ready for this potential period of “super” disasters?
History says no. Whether from the last Super El Niño of 2015-16 or the last El Niño of 2023-24, similar issues in government response worsened the plight of many communities, especially in the agricultural sector.
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While response measures are necessary, they only perpetuate the prioritisation of a reactive culture in climate and disaster governance, which has proven ineffective in managing crises and conveniently ignores the root causes of these problems.
First is the slow mobilisation of interventions. The disbursement of insurance payouts, cash transfers, and other support was slowed by bureaucratic hurdles, which contributed to the infamous Kidapawan protests in 2016 that ended in violence. Poorer municipalities also lacked the necessary facilities and personnel to move and urgently distribute it to remote villages.
Second is the government’s macro-scale focus on localised realities. Advisories on weather conditions and water reservoir levels did not account for conditions at the municipality level. As the government continues to heavily import crops such as rice to address food insecurity, local farmers are burdened by both direct damage to their livelihoods and cheaper competition from these imports.
On the other end of climate extremes, the unprecedented barrage of storms not only resulted in massive losses in agriculture but also billions of pesos worth of houses and other infrastructure. Familiar scenes of thousands in evacuation shelters and entire communities being flooded dominated headlines for weeks, even more so when there is virtually no time to recover from the last typhoon.
Just as importantly, this episode introduced to many Filipinos the reality of compounding risks, putting a cruel twist to the notion of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. It shattered any perception that storm-induced disasters happen only every once in a while. It further gave millions of people a first-hand preview of what happens if the climate crisis is not properly addressed in this vulnerable nation.
“Longer” Christmas season
The Philippines is known for having the longest Christmas season in the world, but with these incoming climate extremes, it will feel even longer — and not in a good way. Towards its final quarter, there is a chance of a community experiencing droughts one day, then a supertyphoon a day or two after.
So many questions remain to be properly answered by the Marcos Jr. administration.
Is the nearly P40 billion (US$648,000) budget of the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Fund going to be enough?
Will the Local Disaster Risk Reduction Management Fund (LDRRM) Funds and Quick Response Funds of national agencies be properly and timely used?
Will some of this year’s P250 billion budget (US$4.04 billion) on flood control help to address both of these extremes — assuming they do not go to the pockets of corrupt officials?
With all due respect to the President, a “semi-permanent disaster response” system is insufficient for the current context. While response measures are necessary, they only perpetuate the prioritisation of a reactive culture in climate and disaster governance, which has proven ineffective in managing crises and conveniently ignores the root causes of these problems.
After also uttering that strong storms should no longer be treated as an emergency, we can only hope his administration has the right approach and attitude heading into this season of potential super-disasters.
On one hand, the government must ramp up its longer-term adaptation projects to build genuine climate resilience in vulnerable communities.
This involves implementing the actions specified in the country’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) for different climate hazards.
For example, to address the impacts of droughts from future strong El Niño episodes, more investment must be secured to establish facilities to preserve harvests, roll out solar-powered irrigation systems, and restore natural watersheds to benefit and protect agricultural communities.
Nonetheless, it cannot be emphasised enough the need to avoid, as much as possible, securing forms of finance that add to either the still-rising national debt or the burden on farmers and other climate-vulnerable sectors. It would also help the Philippines to have a clearer estimate of the costs of implementing its NAP, which it still does not have to this day.
Anticipate, not recreate
On the other hand, while the government has implemented certain solutions, there is an urgent need for even more actionable strategies to address the incoming impacts of these climate extremes.
First, implement anticipatory actions rather than largely responsive ones, including through the implementation of Republic Act 12287, or the “State of Imminent Disasters Act”.
Under this law, local government heads can now declare a state based on science-based pre-disaster risk assessments, giving them a bit more time to prepare before the onset of the peak of the drought or extreme rainfall. It also enables triggering emergency cash transfers to communities under threat and more urgently executing contingency plans to minimise damage to agricultural facilities.
Second, set up water harvesting systems that can withstand both extreme events. Setting up small reservoir irrigation systems and large-scale rainwater harvesting networks could be challenging if a typhoon or super-typhoon also strikes the area; this requires technical support for low-cost, resilient engineering and strategic partnerships across sectors to accomplish this.
Third, maximise all available funds and resources, upholding the strictest standards of transparency and accountability at all times. For example, many local government units (LGUs) did not fully or properly utilise their respective LDRRM in the past.
Along with proper local coordination and the political will of subnational leaders, agencies such as the Department of Interior and Local Government, the Department of Agriculture, and LDRRM Councils must provide guidance to LGUs to ensure they use their respective funds properly to prepare for and address these incoming hazards.
From the decision-makers to every citizen, we must remember that there is no such thing as a natural disaster. Disasters happen when there is a significant failure to fully address risks, especially compounding ones that would become more common and more challenging to address in the era of the climate crisis.
We will find out if our national and local leaders have learned from the mistakes of the past decade. In the era of the climate emergency, there must be urgency.
John Leo Algo is national coordinator of Aksyon Klima Pilipinas, a nonprofit network of 40 civil society organisations like Greenpeace Philippines, WWF Philippines, and the Manila Observatory.
