In a move welcomed by experts and environmental groups, India has announced new targets to lower the intensity of its greenhouse gas emissions and boost the share of renewables in its electricity system.
The country’s latest Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), announced Wednesday, committed to cutting emissions intensity to 47 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035. The plan, which countries typically submit once every five years to the United Nations, maintains India’s goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2070.
It also set a target of 60 per cent of non-fossil electricity capacity to be achieved by then, although this is lower than the near-70 per cent mix that India’s Central Electricity Authority has forecast for 2035-2036 in its National Power Adequacy Plan.
Experts suggested that the government is being deliberately conservative in its pledges. The country has faced severe impacts from the war in West Asia, with roughly half of its crude imports and over 60 per cent of liquified natural gas and liquified petroleum gas transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a report by The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies noted.
“A targeted 60 per cent share of non-fossil electricity capacity in 2035 suggests that while India has raised its ambition to decarbonise the power sector, it is also doubling down on energy security and affordability for hundreds of millions of its citizens,” said Dr Arunabha Ghosh, chief executive officer for the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), a Delhi-based think tank.
India has a history of achieving decarbonisation targets earlier than planned. It met its first target for a reduction in emissions intensity – submitted in 2015 and set at 35 per cent – 11 years ahead of schedule. Emissions intensity reduced by 36 per cent from 2005 to 2020, the government said.
It has also achieved its earlier 40 per cent target for non-fossil fuel-based installed electric capacity nine years ahead of schedule. As of last month, India’s share of renewables was 52.6 per cent of installed electric power capacity, the government said.
“If that trajectory is maintained and supply chain disruptions ease, we estimate that India will exceed its target, as it has repeatedly done in the past,” Ghosh told reporters in a statement.
India’s NDC also increased its ambition of creating additional carbon sinks through increased forest and tree cover, aiming to sequester between 3.5 billion and 4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and its equivalents (CO2e) by 2035 compared to its 2005 level. It has stored some 2.3 billion tonnes of (CO2e) until now in forest-related carbon.
Sectoral pathways needed
India’s new climate targets come months after most countries had submitted their updated NDCs to the UN ahead of the COP30 climate summit last November, with just over a dozen having met the original February 2025 deadline. It also follows a rollback in climate policies and pledges by developed countries.
“Given that the United States has backed out [of the Paris Agreement] and the European Union has also gone on the backfoot on climate, the global effort has already been waning,” said Labanya Jena, director of research organisation Climate and Sustainability Initiative. “So India also seems to have committed in a cautious manner.”
Although India’s new climate targets are a step in the right direction, they fall short of the ambition required for the country’s energy transition, said analysts at the think tank Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
“Encouragingly, the NDC emphasises building resilient infrastructure. However, this needs to be complemented by a sharper, sector-wide decarbonisation roadmap aligned with India’s long-term net-zero trajectory,” said Vibhuti Garg, IEEFA’s director for South Asia.
“Each sector – industry, transport, and buildings – must now move beyond incremental targets toward transformative electrification strategies,” he said.
Specifically, India must focus on transforming its industrial sector, which in 2025 surpassed power as the largest source of emissions, said Melanie Robinson, World Resources Institute’s global climate, economics and finance director. “Boosting efficiency standards, switching to cleaner fuels such as green hydrogen, and transitioning to low-carbon cement will all be essential,” she said.
Equally critical is for India to continue growing its adoption of zero-emission vehicles, which can also boost public health while reducing the country’s dependence on fossil fuels, said Robinson.
A consistent flow of climate finance will also be necessary in helping India meet its updated targets, said Suranjali Tandon, associate professor at the National Institute for Public Finance and Policy.
“The estimated finance for meeting the net zero requirements is US$5.2 trillion between 2025 and 2050,” he told reporters. “Meeting the NDCs would require that growth remains steady and investment rates by the private sector pick up.”
“While multilateral loans are important they cannot be relied on to fill the gap,” Tandon added.
