The global economy is entering a period of weak growth and systemic disruption, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook, published today.
Some 72 per cent of surveyed chief economists expect the global economy to weaken over the next year, amid intensifying trade disruption, rising policy uncertainty and accelerating technological change. The findings point to the emergence of a new economic environment shaped by persistent disruption and growing fragmentation.
Diverging pathways in a fragmented global economy
The Outlook highlights sharp regional fault lines. Emerging markets are anticipated to be the main engines of growth, with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), South Asia and East Asia and Pacific seen as bright spots. One in three chief economists expect strong or very strong growth in these regions.
The outlook for China is more mixed, with 56 per cent of chief economists anticipating moderate growth, though deflationary pressures are expected to persist. Growth is expected to remain more stagnant in advanced economies. In Europe, 40 per cent expect weak growth with fiscal loosening (74 per cent) and low or moderate inflation (88 per cent). In the United States, most chief economists (52 per cent) anticipate weak or very weak growth and high inflation (59 per cent) as monetary policy is loosened (85 per cent).
The chief economists warn that advanced and developing economies are on increasingly divergent growth pathways – 56 per cent expect greater divergence over the next three years.
Towards a new economic environment
Chief economists overwhelmingly agree that today’s disruptions are structural rather than cyclical. Large majorities anticipate long-term disruption in natural resources and energy (78 per cent), technology and innovation (75 per cent), trade and global value chains (63 per cent) and global economic institutions (63 per cent). This marks an important shift. The global economy is not so much weathering isolated shocks as realigning, raising the stakes for new forms of leadership, cooperation and resilience.
“The contours of a new economic environment are already taking shape, defined by disruption across trade, technology, resources and institutions,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “Leaders must adapt with urgency and collaboration to turn today’s turbulence into tomorrow’s resilience.”
Trade realignment, fiscal strain and debt risks
Structural shifts in the global economy are playing out most visibly in trade, fiscal policy and debt. Some 70 per cent of surveyed chief economists rate the current level of trade disruption as “very high”, far above other domains of the economy, and over three-quarters also expect disruption to trade and global value chains to cascade into other domains.
In financial markets and monetary policy, 45 per cent of surveyed economists rate disruption as high or very high, yet only 21 per cent expect it to last. Even so, while 52 per cent see a major near-term crisis in advanced economies as unlikely, 85 per cent warn that any shock could have wide systemic effects.
With global public debt levels mounting, the chief economists surveyed highlight that debt vulnerabilities, once largely associated with emerging economies, are increasingly centred in advanced ones – 80 per cent expect risks in advanced economies to grow in the year ahead. Fiscal vulnerabilities are also more frequently identified among the top growth inhibitors in advanced economies (41 per cent) compared to developing economies (12 per cent).
About the Chief Economists’ Outlook
The report builds on extensive consultations and surveys with chief economists from the public and private sectors, organised by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. The report supports the Forum’s Future of Growth Initiative, aiming to foster dialogue and actionable pathways to sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
About the Sustainable Development Impact Meetings 2025
The Sustainable Development Impact Meetings 2025 takes place from 22 to 26 September in New York, bringing together over 1,000 global leaders from diverse sectors and geographies. Held ahead of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026, these meetings are part of the Forum’s year-round work to accelerate progress on the growth, resilience and innovation through multistakeholder dialogues and action.
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