Indonesia is entering the 2026 fire season with early signs of escalation, as burned area surges even before the dry season peak and forecasts raise the possibility of a so-called “Godzilla” El Niño later this year.
Burned area reached 32,637 hectares (80,650 acres) by February — about three times the size of Paris, 20 times higher than the same period last year — even before the dry season has fully set in.
Scientists say this early surge could signal the start of a more intense fire season, especially as climate forecasts point to the possible return of El Niño.
Some global forecasts suggest the event could become one of the strongest in at least a decade, raising the risk of prolonged drought and widespread fires, although significant uncertainty remains over how intense it will ultimately be.
A strong El Niño would also likely reshape global weather patterns and could push global temperatures to record levels in 2027, due to the lagged warming effect the phenomenon has on the climate system.
El Niño refers to a warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can disrupt weather patterns worldwide. In Indonesia, it is typically associated with drier conditions and heightened fire risk.
Indonesian agencies have at times referred to the potential event as a Godzilla El Niño, a nonscientific term used to describe an unusually strong episode that could significantly intensify drought and fire risk.
Indonesia’s meteorological agency, BMKG, says there is a 50-80 per cent chance of a weak to moderate El Niño developing in the second half of 2026.
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Forest fires are among the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions… causing environmental damage, chronic health impacts and trillions of rupiah in economic losses.
Hanif Faisol Nurofiq, environment minister, Indonesia
At the same time, forecasts from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration leave open the possibility of a stronger event, with a 25 per cent chance of a “very strong” El Niño and a 50 per cent chance of a “strong” one, based on projected ocean warming of at least 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit) above average.
Historical data suggest Indonesia’s fires follow a consistent seasonal pattern, intensifying from midyear and peaking between September and October, according to a recent study published in PLOS ONE. The study also found that the most severe fire years tend to coincide with climate anomalies such as El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a pattern that has raised concern among researchers as similar conditions begin to emerge in 2026.
Even before El Niño fully develops, hotspots are already flaring up across the country.
Burning season
Fire monitoring by the independent watchdog Pantau Gambut detected 23,546 hotspots in peatland areas since January 2026.
Peatlands are carbon-rich ecosystems that store around 20 times more carbon than typical mineral soils. When burned, they release large amounts of carbon dioxide, making them a major source of Indonesia’s greenhouse gas emissions.
In March alone, Pantau Gambut identified 12,942 hotspots across peat ecosystems, nearly tripling the February figure of 5,114.
Government data based on NASA’s Terra and Aqua MODIS satellites also show an increase in fire activity, although the figures are not directly comparable due to differences in methodology and scope. As of April 14, satellites had detected 735 high-confidence hotspots nationwide, nearly three times higher than the same period in 2025.
With fire activity already rising ahead of the peak dry season, researchers warn Indonesia may be entering the early stages of another severe fire year, like the one in 2015.
In 2015, Godzilla El Niño brought a prolonged and more intense dry season to Indonesia, resulting in toxic haze from the burning of plantations in the country travelling as far as neighbouring Malaysia and Singapore, causing more than half a million respiratory infections.
To prevent a repeat of past transboundary haze crises, the government is prioritising fire control in border regions. Deputy Forestry Minister Rohmat Marzuki said efforts such as hotspot monitoring, patrols and early warning systems are being focused in Riau, Riau Islands and West Kalimantan.
“These areas are a priority because they are close to neighbouring countries,” he said, as quoted by local media on April 8.
Environment Minister Hanif Faisol Nurofiq has also called for stronger coordination between central and regional governments, along with stricter law enforcement against those responsible for fires.
“Forest fires are among the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions … causing environmental damage, chronic health impacts and trillions of rupiah in economic losses,” he said.
Corporate responsibility
Pantau Gambut also found that many hotspots are located within concession areas, including 6,192 hotspots in oil palm concessions and 1,334 in timber concessions.
The group says this suggests that legal permits alone do not guarantee fire-safe land management and highlights gaps in oversight and enforcement.
Pantau Gambut campaigner Putra Saptian said the government should ensure concession holders take responsibility for restoring burned areas, so the cost of environmental damage does not fall on the state.
“Supervision of peat ecosystem-based restoration must be strengthened to ensure that permit holders’ restoration obligations cover all ecological impacts caused, both within and beyond their concession boundaries, in order to prevent recurring fiscal losses for the state,” he said.
Health impacts
The fires have already begun affecting air quality in parts of Indonesia.
In Pekanbaru, the capital of Riau province, haze has reduced visibility at the main airport to around 1.2 kilometres (a quarter mile), according to local meteorological observations.
Earlier this year, residents in Siak also reported persistent haze linked to nearby fires. One resident, Sugiono, said the haze lasted throughout the day — unlike typical morning fog — raising concerns about its impact on public health.
“When it gets hazy like this, it’s a sign that ARI [acute respiratory infection] will spread again among the community,” he told local media. “At that time, because of the haze, my whole family had to be hospitalised.”
Health officials warn that prolonged dry conditions can worsen air pollution by reducing rainfall that would otherwise help clear pollutants from the atmosphere.
“Increases in temperature and environmental changes can also trigger the spread of vector-borne diseases such as dengue and malaria,” Health Ministry spokesperson Aji Muhawarman said, noting that stagnant water can become breeding grounds for mosquitoes.
He added that deteriorating sanitation and water quality during drought conditions could also increase the risk of diseases such as diarrhoea, typhoid, cholera and leptospirosis.
Food insecurity
Beyond fires and health impacts, experts warn that El Niño could also threaten Indonesia’s food production.
Erma Yulihastin, a researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency, said drought could affect key rice-producing regions along Java’s northern coast.
Past El Niño events have had significant impacts on agriculture. The 1997-98 episode reduced rice production by up to 6 per cent compared with earlier years, while the 2024 El Niño cut output by about 2.3 million tons in the first four months of the year, a drop of 17.5 per cent year-over-year.
“When El Niño occurs, drought conditions become more extreme, leading to clean water crises, crop failures and food insecurity,” said Musdalifah, a food campaigner at WALHI.
She added that Indonesia’s vulnerability is compounded by long-term land use changes, including the conversion of agricultural land into plantations and large-scale infrastructure projects.
As a result, Indonesia remains reliant on food imports. Data from Statistics Indonesia show that the country imported 13,629 tons of food commodities in the first quarter of 2025.
The National Food Agency says it has prepared government rice reserves to anticipate potential disruptions. But Musdalifah stressed that food security is not only about supply.
“It is also about ensuring whether people, especially lower-income and poor communities, can access it, and ensuring that food is fit for consumption,” she said.
This story was published with permission from Mongabay.com.
