China on Thursday released a new five-year plan aimed at reducing the carbon emissions of its economy, relying heavily on its rapidly expanding renewable energy sector to curb coal use and greenhouse gas output.
Under the plan, China aims to cut carbon intensity – emissions per unit of gross domestic product – by 17 per cent between 2026 and 2030. The target falls short of the country’s pledge under the Paris climate agreement to reduce carbon intensity by at least 65 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030.
The plan did not include a target for China’s total emissions to begin declining before 2030, although Beijing has previously pledged to peak carbon dioxide emissions before that date and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
Research by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) has previously estimated that China would need to reduce carbon intensity by around 23 per cent over the next five years to remain on track to meet its Paris commitment.
China has increasingly sought to position itself as a global leader on climate and clean energy after Washington exited the Paris Agreement last year and retreated from climate policies.
During the previous five-year plan period that ended last year, China reduced its carbon intensity by 12 per cent, missing its earlier target of an 18 per cent cut.
Under the new programme, Beijing set annual goals to replace a total of 30 million metric tonnes of coal with renewable energy over the next five years but stopped short of imposing caps on coal consumption.
China is already the world’s largest renewable energy market. By the end of 2024, the country’s installed renewable power capacity reached about 1.89 terawatts (TW), including 887 gigawatts (GW) of solar, 521 GW of wind and 436 GW of hydropower, according to official statistics.
Wind and solar power alone have expanded rapidly in recent years, exceeding 1.8 TW of installed capacity by 2025 and accounting for nearly half of China’s total power capacity.
China has driven much of the global growth in renewable energy. The country installed more wind and solar capacity than the rest of the world combined in 2024, accounting for over half of global additions that year.
Large-scale solar and wind bases in northern and western desert regions, as well as offshore wind farms along China’s eastern coast, have become key pillars of the expansion.
The scale of China’s renewable build-out now far exceeds that of other major economies. The country accounts for roughly half of global renewable capacity and has added far more solar capacity in recent years than the United States or the European Union.
At the same time, China remains the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter and continues to rely heavily on coal for power generation.
The latest plan shifts policy focus from controlling the energy intensity of the economy to carbon intensity, returning to a framework used in earlier planning cycles.
Under the revised “dual control” system, industry, companies and individual projects will face carbon emissions controls, according to the plan.
China aims to reduce carbon intensity by about 3.8 per cent in 2026, according to a report by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planner.
China’s carbon emissions fell 0.3 per cent last year, driven by reductions in the transport, power, cement and metals sectors, although it remains unclear whether emissions will rise again before peaking.
President Xi Jinping told the United Nations in September that China would expand wind and solar power capacity sixfold from 2020 levels by 2035. Based on current installation trends, the country is on pace to exceed that target.
Over the next five years, China will also introduce minimum quotas for renewable energy consumption and measures to phase out coal-fired equipment and facilities, according to the NDRC, while working toward a peak in coal consumption. Previously, Beijing had pledged only to gradually phase down coal use.
