Brazil’s voluntary roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels could help supportive countries build a stronger coalition at COP31 despite persistent resistance to phase-out commitments, said environmentalists.
The proposal offers a way for governments to cooperate outside the formal negotiating track, while strengthening their collective push for action at successive United Nations climate summits, according to Emel Türker Alpay, climate and energy campaigner at Greenpeace Türkiye.
Speaking at a webinar ahead of COP31, which runs from 9 to 20 November in Antalya, Türkiye, Alpay described the roadmap as a “voluntary but very powerful track” that could help countries organise in the face of opposition to fossil fuel phase-out discussions.
“Collaboration, working together, showing solidarity will make our claims, our demands, priorities, and expectations more powerful,” she said.
Alpay’s comments suggested the roadmap could serve as a coalition-building tool as well as a framework for implementing the fossil fuel transition agreed at COP28 in Dubai in 2023.
COP30 Chief Executive Ana Toni (extreme left) and COP31 Preisident André Aranha Corrêa do Lago (centre) spearhead the launch of the COP30 Presidency Roadmaps on transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems at the UNDP Brazil office, in Brasília on 3 November 2026. Image: COP30 Presidency
Brazil developed the roadmap following a pledge at last year’s climate summit in Belém. The voluntary, non-prescriptive document is not subject to negotiation and aims to accelerate implementation through national planning and international cooperation.
It proposes a “TAFF Mutirão” – a collective effort to accelerate coordinated action through 2033 – alongside a framework for assessing countries’ fossil fuel dependence and capacity to transition.
The initiative faces a difficult backdrop of continued fossil fuel expansion and disputes over how quickly countries should transition.
The United States, Canada, Australia and Norway have been identified as driving oil and gas expansion, with their combined production rising nearly 40 per cent between 2015 and 2024.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have resisted oil and gas “phase-out” language, favouring “phase-down” commitments and promoting natural gas and carbon capture as transition options.
COP31 host Türkiye has been found to be pursuing new coal projects as it prepares to lead the climate talks.
In Asia Pacific, India pushed to replace a coal “phase-out” with a “phase-down” at COP26, citing development needs and poverty eradication. China and other emerging economies also supported the change. Environmental groups have criticised Japan’s continued financing of overseas fossil fuel projects.
“
Collaboration, working together, showing solidarity will make our claims, our demands, priorities, and expectations more powerful.
Emel Türker Alpay, climate and energy campaigner, Greenpeace Türkiye
The political divisions come as countries face mounting costs to protect communities from climate impacts. UNEP’s 2026 Adaptation Gap Report released on 4 November warned that developing countries will need roughly US$305 billion annually by 2035 to build resilience to climate impacts. Even meeting the COP30 goal of tripling international public adaptation finance would cover only 20 to 29 per cent of estimated needs, after accounting for inflation.
“The world is not ready to adapt to current climatic conditions, never mind what overshoot of 1.5°C will bring,” said UNEP executive director Inger Andersen. She urged countries at COP31 to increase funding beyond the tripling goal to protect lives and economies.
To sustain momentum on the fossil fuel transition, countries and civil society need to strengthen cooperation across several international forums outside formal UN climate negotiations, said Kathryn McCallum, Director of Strategy at Climate Action Network Australia, speaking at the same webinar.
McCallum, who attended the Santa Marta gathering, described it as a “constructive and action-oriented conversation” that brought government, community and civil society representatives together to discuss barriers and solutions to the fossil fuel transition.
The next international conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, which she said would be co-hosted by Tuvalu and Ireland in Tuvalu next year, offers an opportunity to broaden engagement across the Asia-Pacific region.
Pacific nations have been powerful advocates for limiting warming to 1.5°C and securing a time-bound fossil fuel phase-out, she said, with Tuvalu bringing its lived experience of climate impacts to the discussions.
“We will be having very constructive conversations and mobilising at COP31 to build that understanding and to build the connections between our social movements and also between parties,” McCallum said.
She described these initiatives as complementary to the UN climate process, rather than replacements for it.
“We have the UNFCCC, which is incredibly important. It’s hard because it’s consensus-based, but when it moves, it’s so impactful,” she said.
McCallum also identified the International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion on climate change and the fossil fuel treaty campaign as different avenues for strengthening accountability and international cooperation.
“These are plans that we need to make,” she said. “This is collaboration and international cooperation that has to happen.”
