The 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup is set to become the most-watched sporting event in history as the expanded 48-team tournament reaches its final week, drawing billions of viewers to football’s biggest stage.
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Spain booked their place in the World Cup final with a 2-0 victory over France on Tuesday at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, led by defender Pedro Porro. England will face Argentina in the second semi-final at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Wednesday, with veteran Lionel Messi set to take on rising star Jude Bellingham. The winner will meet Spain in the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Sunday, 19 July.
But as the tournament builds towards its showpiece finale, scientists say several of the stadiums hosting this year’s matches are projected to face increasingly frequent periods of dangerous heat in the coming decades, raising questions about the future of staging summer football tournaments in a warming world.
A report by non-profit organisations Football for Future and Common Goal found that by 2050, 14 of the 16 stadiums used for the 2026 World Cup are projected to experience days exceeding a wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) of 32°C under a high-emissions scenario. This is the threshold at which cooling breaks become mandatory during matches. Eleven stadiums are also projected to record days above 35°C WBGT, a level climate scientists have identified as the upper limit of human adaptability to extreme heat.
Above this threshold, the body’s natural cooling mechanisms begin to fail, increasing the risks of heatstroke, dehydration and other medical emergencies for players, spectators and stadium staff while complicating match scheduling, medical response and stadium operations.
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Nothing is more important than protecting our planet, and no cultural phenomenon is more powerful than football. Today, it faces a new test: the climate crisis.
Elliot Arthur-Worsop, founding director, Football for Future
Among the most exposed host cities is Dallas, where AT&T Stadium hosted one of this week’s semi-finals. By 2050, the city’s arena is projected to experience 123 days each year above 32°C WBGT and 64 days exceeding the 35°C “unplayable” threshold, nearly double the number expected today.
MetLife Stadium, which will host the tournament final, is projected to experience 38 days each year above 32°C WBGT and 11 days above 35°C by mid-century. The report also identifies the venue as being located in an area of maximum water stress, creating additional long-term challenges for pitch maintenance and stadium operations.
Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium, meanwhile, faces some of the highest projected heat exposure of any host venue, with 164 days each year above 32°C WBGT and 54 days above 35°C by 2050. During the 2024 Copa América, Uruguay defender Ronald Araújo was substituted at half-time after suffering heat-related dehydration during a match played in the city.
The report concludes that climate risks are no longer confined to future tournaments. Fourteen of the 16 World Cup stadiums already exceeded safe-play thresholds for at least three major climate hazards, including extreme heat, flooding and unplayable rainfall, with risks projected to intensify by mid-century.
Climate-driven heat is projected to increase health and operational risks at many outdoor sporting venues, prompting calls to rethink future summer tournaments. Image: NYC Mayor’s Office, via Flickr.
“Climate change is no longer a distant warning — it is already reshaping football, from grassroots pitches to iconic stadiums, from community football to major competitions,” said Jérémy Houssin, sustainability and impact lead at Common Goal.
“Hazards are escalating. When young players cannot rely on safe, playable grounds, the entire future of the game is at risk — its joy, its legends, its global reach.”
Heat risks extend beyond the pitch
Scientists had warned ahead of the tournament that several host cities could exceed internationally recognised heat stress thresholds, particularly during afternoon kick-offs, as climate change increases environmental heat stress across North America.
“Some of the venues for the 2026 World Cup are likely to exceed the recommended heat-related ‘high risk’ threshold, especially during afternoon kick-offs,” said Mike Tipton, president of the Physiological Society from the University of Portsmouth’s Extreme Environments Lab, in an open letter released ahead of the playoffs.
“Competitive exercise in hot environments can lead to a range of problems from impaired performance and enforced alterations in game strategy, to the medical emergency of heat stroke,” he continued.
Separate research published in the International Journal of Biometeorology projected that 14 of the tournament’s 16 host stadiums will exceed the critical 28°C WBGT threshold during this year’s competition. Researchers urged organisers to consider scheduling matches outside the hottest parts of the day and expanding heat management measures to reduce health risks.
“Teams at the 2026 men’s FIFA World Cup will face heat stress beyond recognised thresholds, especially during afternoon kick-offs,” said Oliver Gibson of Brunel University London.
”[Moving forward,] organisers need to consider bringing in effective heat management strategies to reduce the negative impact of heat stress on players’ health and performance.”
Workers, fans and tourism also at risk
The risks extend well beyond players.
A separate study led by researchers at the University of Georgia found that tens of thousands of workers supporting the tournament across 16 host cities could face occupational heat stress during June and July.
Analysing 30 years of weather data, the researchers found that hot and humid host cities such as Houston, Miami and Monterrey frequently reached WBGT levels approaching 31°C, regularly exceeding recommended occupational heat exposure limits, particularly for workers performing physically demanding tasks over long shifts.
The researchers said venue-specific heat management plans should include flexible work schedules, shaded rest areas, hydration and cooling access, acclimatisation protocols and contingency plans for extreme heat events.
Researchers say spectators could also face increasing heat exposure as sports tourism grows around global events such as the FIFA World Cup.
While some stadiums provide cooling measures, heat risks remain during outdoor activities surrounding matches, including travel to venues, queuing, fan festivals and public viewing events.
Climate attribution studies suggest these risks are becoming increasingly likely because of human-induced climate change. Compared with when the United States last hosted the men’s World Cup in 1994, hazardous WBGT conditions are now substantially more likely across many host cities, with climate models projecting further increases as global temperatures continue to rise.
The researchers concluded that while adaptation measures such as cooling infrastructure can reduce some risks, safeguarding football during northern hemisphere summers will also depend on reducing greenhouse gas emissions that continue to drive more frequent and intense heat extremes.
“Nothing is more important than protecting our planet, and no cultural phenomenon is more powerful than football,” said Elliot Arthur-Worsop, founding director of Football for Future.
“Today, it faces a new test: the climate crisis.”
