China is still installing new coal-fired power plants but at a much slower rate than before, suggesting the country is well on its way to peaking its use as a fossil fuel, according to Greenpeace East Asia.
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A new study by the environmental organisation showed that this year, China is on track to record the second-lowest rate of approvals for new coal-fired power plants since 2021. In the first three months of 2025, the country had approved 41.77 gigawatts (GW) of new coal capacity.
It would also mark the second consecutive year of decline in China’s approvals for new coal capacity, Greenpeace East Asia said in a statement on Tuesday.
“China’s power-sector emissions peak is within reach as early as 2025. Yet, maintaining momentum to curb coal approvals remains critical,” said the organisation’s Beijing-based climate and energy project manager Gao Yuhe.
At the current approval rate, the country’s total coal capacity now stands at 340GW, which is more than twice the total permitted over the last five years. Large-scale units of more than 600 megawatts still account for over 90 per cent of newly permitted units.
Any new coal-fired power plants risk becoming stranded assets in the country’s rapidly decarbonising power system, she warned. “Clear policy signals to cap coal and boost renewables are essential to accelerate both the power sector and societal emissions peaks.”
Greenpeace East Asia’s research showed that China has recorded unprecedented growth in renewables installations over the last five years, with combined wind and solar capacity surpassing coal for the first time.
This supports recent findings by energy think tank Ember that China and India had been the main drivers of solar and wind demand growth outpacing coal in the global electricity mix for the first time. China’s overall emissions have also been flat or falling for 18 months now, according to Carbon Brief data, supported by growing renewables and the rapid adoption of electric vehicles.
However, China has also recorded a sharp drop in new solar installations between June and September this year, creating structural headwinds towards peak emissions, said Gao. This was due to national reforms to how local governments price solar and wind power, based on a directive in early 2025 known as Document No. 136.
Under the directive, renewable energy prices use a more market-based approach instead of a previous feed-in tariff system that saw fixed rates tied to a benchmark linked to coal price.
“April to May saw a pre-cutoff installation surge; thereafter, year-on-year solar additions fell sharply from June through September,” Greenpeace East Asia’s report noted.
China has seen new additional solar capacity decline between June and September 2025, according to official data. Image: Greenpeace East Asia
But local governments must not rely on coal as the default means of ensuring energy security. “Repositioning coal as a genuinely flexible support resource – not a baseload provider – is critical to the further development of the renewable-dominant new power system,” she said.
Greenpeace East Asia urged China’s policymakers to issue a top-level framework with targets to accelerate the substitution of coal with renewables, as well as to shift provincial energy strategies towards renewables and flexible resources.
It also called on the government to integrate coal planning into a unified system, requiring state-owned enterprises to assess the risks of coal plants becoming stranded assets.
These are details that could be outlined in China’s upcoming fifteenth Five-Year Plan, a national economic and social blueprint that outlines the government’s development goals and priorities, Greenpeace East Asia said. The upcoming plan, which spans 2026 to 2030, is expected to be tabled early next year.
Even in this context, China will face challenges with a just transition, said Zhe Yao, Greenpeace East Asia’s global policy advisor.
“When industries shift their focus [towards decarbonisation and renewable energy], how do you deal with outdated industries and employment loss related to that? That would be a huge challenge for China as well,” she said to reporters on the sidelines of the recent COP30 conference. “I think that discussion is currently lacking in China’s domestic policy discussions.”
