Acting before the worst effects of a potentially record-breaking 2026/2027 El Niño could roughly halve the cost of protecting vulnerable households in developing countries, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) says in a new report released today. As countries face threats to food, water and livelihood security, the findings underline a broader message: waiting to act carries a cost.
The report, The Cost of Waiting in a Warmer World: Why Climate Investment Cannot Wait for the Next Disaster, estimates that early support for vulnerable households could cost up to US$36 billion, compared with up to US$73 billion if governments wait to respond until after the damage is done.
Early action and financing can protect households before shocks deepen
Without early intervention, the economic consequences risk being substantial. Droughts, floods and extreme heat threaten to disrupt food production, drive up prices, damage livelihoods, and push millions of people into poverty. UNDP estimates that, without policy intervention and action, a five per cent increase in food prices across developing economies could push 37 million people below the upper-middle-income poverty line in 2026.
“El Niño threatens the essentials people depend on: food on the table, clean water and a secure livelihood,” said UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo. “We have warnings, and we know that acting early can protect millions of people and save billions of dollars. People facing these risks cannot afford delay.”
Making financing available before shocks hit is central to that response. It can help countries protect vulnerable households early, while investing in the resilience needed to withstand future pressures.
El Niño illustrates wider cost of waiting
The analysis highlights that the same economic argument for early investment applies as countries continue to tackle the broader climate crisis. How the international community responds to El Niño offers a ‘stress test’ for its ability to turn warnings into timely action.
Modelling by UNDP and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) finds that the potential cost of climate inaction is as much as US$6 trillion in lost economic opportunities and climate-related damages.
However, according to the report, more ambitious national climate policies combined with complementary development measures could lift an additional 175 million people out of extreme poverty by 2050.
The report makes clear that solutions to the climate crisis exist - from immediate responses that cushion shocks, like those posed by El Niño, to longer-term investments that build resilience and expand economic opportunities. Delaying those investments risks both greater damage and missed opportunities for development.
Financing now strengthens future resilience
With world leaders gathering this week in Antalya, Türkiye, UNDP is calling on governments, development banks, climate funds and the private sector to accelerate investment in developing countries’ climate and adaptation plans. These investments can protect people from immediate shocks while strengthening longer-term resilience.
The UN System has come together to support countries in delivering those plans through Climate Promise: Forward, an initiative that UNDP coordinates with 30 UN entities. This provides a basis for coordinated action that connects countries’ plans with the financing and support needed to implement them.
“Climate change is not only an environmental and economic challenge. It is also deepening insecurity in people’s lives. It can worsen food and water insecurity, increase displacement, intensify competition over resources and compound existing fragility,” added Mr De Croo. “We are at a critical fork in the road: invest in resilience now or pay a much higher price later.”
Full report
Read the full report at https://www.undp.org/publications/cost-waiting-warmer-world-why-climate-investment-cannot-wait-next-disaster
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