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The Middle East conflict is set to have a double-whammy impact on both Asean’s import of fertilisers, and its energy-intensive fertiliser production. The timing is critical as in the coming months, the five major crops, including rice, are being planted in Asean.
While the rest of the world is mainly concerned about the energy disruptions caused by the Iran war, the Gulf countries are more anxious about the Islamic Republic’s threats to their desalination facilities. If the US attempts to seize Kharg Island, it could spell disaster for the region's "saltwater kingdoms."
Iran’s wider goal is to raise global energy prices, including those for Gulf oil-dependent Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines and Vietnam.
If the current war creates a prolonged oil crisis, there will be more downward pressure on oil use – and an equal acceleration in China of electric car production at home, with an associated surge in exports.
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