The wildfires devastating Southern Europe and North America now follow similar events in recent years in Australia, Brazil and even Siberia, not to mention floods in Germany and Australia. The scientific consensus is clear: climate change is worsening fires and extreme weather and poses a real threat to the survival of our species, unless we stop burning fossil fuels.
This reasoning led to a landmark agreement at COP28 in Dubai, calling for a transition away from fossil fuels. Since then many countries have sought to build on that commitment, including over 80 countries that pushed for a transition roadmap at COP30 in Brazil. But international progress has been slow.
The active efforts of the fossil fuel industry in delaying moves that threaten their business are well documented. But overstating this role does a disservice to countries that genuinely want climate action but are equally genuinely concerned about their ability to provide affordable energy to their people. Transforming the global energy system is a massive and complex task.
But recent geopolitical events have underlined the vulnerability of fossil fuel dependency, including on exporting nations, like Australia. They have a pressing need to diversify their exports, and many, particularly in the Middle East, have abundant renewable energy potential.
The question is how do we transition away from fossil fuels in a timely, fair and effective manner that can attract a broad global consensus?
Transitioning away from fossil fuels is not just about what we are taking out of our systems, but what we are putting in. Türkiye and Australia have made electrification and the decarbonisation of supply chains priority areas for COP31 in Antalya and these are steps in the right direction.
The International Energy Agency says that renewable energy was the cheapest form of new generation in 2024. And investing in storage is making energy systems more robust. That is good news for governments and good news for people’s pockets during a cost of living crisis.
We know that language matters. But the logic of needing to accelerate decarbonisation is impeccable across the board: it meets the urgent need to take climate action and it makes economic sense.
Countries have been more receptive to formal commitments to build alternatives to fossil fuels than they have been to directly referencing transitioning away from them. A global pathway to facilitate investment and finance for such projects in financially vulnerable countries would also help to secure their economic futures.
Heavy industry, transport, chemicals and manufacturing remain among the hardest sectors to decarbonise or electrify. Building clean supply chains for these sectors will be essential to achieving global climate goals.
Heavy industry is a major consumer of energy. Decarbonising will require the renewable generation capacity to enable it, which will support the decarbonisation of electrical grids and other energy systems. And emissions reductions will occur as soon as a green hydrogen or green metals plants begins production and displaces a fossil fuel alternative, not at some hypothetical future time envisaged by a rhetorical phase out.
A COP deal to decarbonise the world would need to include a commitment to electrification and decarbonising global supply chains, and an action plan to achieve it. This would need to include targets, such as the recent call by Türkiye and Australia as COP President and President of Negotiations to raise the share of electricity in energy demand to 35 per cent by 2035, as well as mechanisms for finance, technology transfer and facilitation of investment.
The Action Agenda’s electrification target is welcome and necessary, but not sufficient to meet the urgency of the task. Additional commitments on clean energy inputs to global supply chains would demonstrate what that electrification can deliver, as well as broaden the focus to clean energy alternatives in processes that are difficult to electrify. Tangible outcomes leading to immediate emissions reductions could go a long way to restoring the world’s confidence in the ability of the multilateral process to deliver outcomes.
If COP31 can secure agreement on decarbonising global supply chains, it will do more than reduce emissions. It will create the economic foundations that make the transition away from fossil fuels inevitable.
In a process often criticised for rhetoric over results, that would be a significant achievement.
Janaline Oh is a former Australian diplomat and a Director of Diplomats for Climate. Over four postings (Port Moresby, Brussels, Beijing and Hong Kong) and many Canberra-based placements, she has covered a wide range of foreign policy and trade issues. She has led or participated in negotiations ranging from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and Convention on Biodiversity, to regional fisheries and environmental agreements, to bilateral trade and cultural agreements. She holds a Master of Public and International Law from the University.
