From Hormuz to rice fields: how Middle East conflict could worsen Philippines’ next El Niño food shock

Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for energy and fertiliser trade, is raising the cost of fertiliser just as dry conditions could constrain irrigation water for rice planted from November to January. World urea prices nearly doubled between February and April 2026 – a critical shock for the country, which imports about 90 per cent of its fertiliser needs and relies on rice as both a staple food and a major crop.

Together, tighter water supplies and more expensive fertiliser could reduce rice yields in the 2027 harvest season, even as record imports are expected to protect the country from an immediate supply shortage this year, according to farm experts. 

Raul Montemayor, National Manager of the Federation of Free Farmers Cooperatives, which represents around 200,000 agricultural tenants, owner-cultivators, farmworkers, fishers and settlers nationwide, said farmers were likely to feel the full impact of higher fertiliser prices more strongly in the second half of the year. Many had already planted their first semester crops when the Middle East conflict began in February, delaying the effect on their planting costs.

Former agriculture secretary William Dar said higher inorganic fertiliser prices coupled with freight costs, could depress rice and corn production, particularly for farmers beginning the dry season planting cycle. 

Philippine rice farmers were already applying less fertiliser than many of their counterparts in China, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand before the Middle East conflict, according to a PIDS study. Further price increases could force them to cut use even more, reducing yields that are already below their potential. Image: PIDS

Rice or palay accounts for an estimated 38 per cent of total fertiliser use in the Philippines, according to a recent Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) analysis on the potential effects of US-Iran tensions on local fertiliser supplies.

The PIDS study focused on urea, the most widely used fertiliser grade in the country. It found that while the Philippines has diversified urea imports towards Southeast Asian suppliers, it remains exposed to broader disruptions in global markets caused by instability in the Persian Gulf, including supply constraints, higher international prices and rising shipping costs.

Higher prices could force farmers to use less fertiliser than their rice crops need, further reducing harvests that already fall short of their potential. The PIDS study warned that many small-scale farmers already use less fertiliser than their crops need because they cannot afford enough, holding back rice harvests. Montemayor said although the government had promised support for farmers amid the Middle East conflict, that direct assistance to cushion higher fertiliser costs had yet to reach many growers.

The risk will become more severe if the expected El Niño reduces water stored in dams and reservoirs before the November to January planting period. Farmers growing rice during this largely dry season cycle rely heavily on irrigation rather than rainfall, making adequate water supply essential, said Montemayor. 

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With all these global challenges impacting on agriculture, we need to have systematic and scaled up efforts to level up agricultural productivity, income and environmental sustainability. 

William Dar, former Philippine Secretary of Agriculture

“The harvest is worrisome for next year, not this year. If not much water was stored in dam-dependent areas, this will affect the rice plantings from November to January,” Montemayor told Eco-Business. 

The Department of Agriculture (DA) has warned that a strong El Niño could cut rice production by up to 700,000 metric tonnes, or 3.5 percent of the annual production target, while the state weather bureau has put the likelihood of a moderate-to-strong episode emerging in the final quarter of 2026 at 92 percent. 

Montemayor said lower rice figures for the third quarter may reflect delayed planting and harvesting, rather than widespread crop damage. The rainy season began only on 4 June – later than its usual May start – so some farmers planted later and will harvest their crops in the final quarter of the year instead of between July and September.

The country’s main rice-growing areas in Central Luzon received broadly normal rainfall in June and July, he said, while the eastern Philippines, where dry conditions were more pronounced, is not traditionally a major rice-producing region. Much of the current standing crop is already in its third month of a typical four-month cycle, limiting the likely impact of El Niño on this year’s harvest. 

Young rice seedlings raised using the System of Rice Intensification (SRI) method await transplanting in Natividad, Pangasinan. The approach promotes young seedlings, wider spacing and organic soil inputs to improve productivity and reduce reliance on chemical fertiliser. Image: Rice Watch Action Network (RWAN)

Rice imports, meanwhile, had reached almost 4 million tonnes by August, compared with around 3.5 million tonnes over the same period a year earlier, according to Montemayor. The large volume is expected to cushion domestic supplies this year, although it also underscores the Philippines’ reliance on international markets, particularly Vietnam, which supplies an estimated 70 to 80 per cent of its imported rice.

The DA has announced cloud seeding, solar-powered irrigation, revised planting calendars and crop-diversification programmes to prepare for El Niño. But Montemayor and Dar said the effectiveness of the response would depend on whether measures were delivered quickly and at sufficient scale.

“It is not a question of being enough but will they be put in place on time,” Montemayor said. “All they have are announcements.”

Dar said longer term investments, including rainwater-harvesting facilities, irrigation, climate-resilient bioengineering and efforts to increase cropping intensity in irrigated land, were needed to protect rice production beyond the immediate El Niño response.

Crisis opens door to greener farming

Rising fertiliser prices and recurring disruptions to global supply chains could accelerate a shift away from heavy dependence on imported inorganic inputs and towards agroecology – an approach to farming that works with natural processes to improve soil health, recycle nutrients, diversify crops and reduce reliance on chemical fertilisers. 

Andrew Bovarnick, global head of food systems at the United Nations Development Programme, said the Middle East conflict and the temporary disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had created a “double hit” for farmers and consumers by increasing both fertiliser and food costs.

However, he said the crisis also reinforced the case for reducing dependence on agrochemicals and strengthening agroecological farming practices.

“Many countries are already seeing this shift as important and whilst it’s a short-term, significant economic problem, hopefully we can seize the opportunity for accelerating this transition away from agro-industry and agrochemicals more towards connection to nature and regenerating the soil and reducing that dependency because that’s going to improve food resilience and food security,” Bovarnick said in an online briefing for the Global Conscious Food Systems Summit 2026 held in Bhutan on 1 September.

“This isn’t the first crisis. When the Russian-Ukraine war hit, we also had that problem, and there’ll be more shocks in the future. We can really capitalise this and work with countries across Southeast Asia to reduce that dependency,” he added. 

Seeds are sown and carefully tended for 7 to 12 days until the seedlings are ready for transplanting using the System of Rice Intensification (SRI) approach. Image: Rice Watch Action Network (RWAN)

Montemayor said farmers in the Philippines have increasingly explored alternatives whenever inorganic fertiliser prices rise, although synthetic products remain more attractive because they are easier to apply and produce faster results. He said the DA had historically prioritised synthetic fertiliser use over organic alternatives, partly because of concerns that a organic fertilisers produce less yield.

The move towards agroecology is therefore already happening “by force of circumstance,” he said, but it will require much greater public support, reliable supplies and standards for biofertilisers.

Compost, for instance, can be difficult and labour-intensive to use at scale, he said. Farmers may need to spread 20 to 30 bags of compost per hectare, compared with only four to six bags of synthetic fertiliser. Unlike chemical products, compost and other organic inputs also do not provide an immediate yield response.

Years of synthetic fertiliser use can leave soils more acidic and damage beneficial organisms, Montemayor said, creating what he described as a form of fertiliser dependency in which farmers must keep applying increasing amounts to maintain productivity. Restoring soil health through biofertilisers and other organic inputs can take two to three years before farmers see substantial results.

For now, he said, a gradual strategy combining synthetic and biological inputs is more realistic. This could include biofertilisers, compost, soil-specific bionutrients and liquid formulations sprayed onto leaves rather than granular fertiliser applied directly to soil.

But significant barriers remain. Montemayor said biofertilisers currently account for only about 10 percent of Philippine fertiliser requirements, while quality and certification standards remain limited. Farmers may buy products without confidence that they are effective, he said.

Dar backed the call for a “balanced fertilisation strategy”, combining inorganic fertiliser with compost, biofertilisers and soil ameliorants. He said organic inputs could replace up to 50 per cent of inorganic fertiliser use when deployed systematically, alongside soil rejuvenation measures and integrated pest management that treats pesticides as a last resort.

“With all these global challenges impacting on agriculture, we need to have systematic and scaled up efforts to level up agricultural productivity, income and environmental sustainability. With this direction, the imperative for resilience revolution, where large scale, long-term shift in how Philippine agriculture is supported and practised, is now a necessity,” he said.