The Philippines submitted its updated climate pledge to the United Nations on 8 September, retaining its target to reduce and avoid 75 per cent of projected greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 while drawing on the country’s expanding role as a net carbon sink.
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A net sink occurs when carbon-absorbing systems remove at least as much greenhouse gas from the atmosphere as a country emits. New analysis in the Philippines’ submission found that the forestry and other land use sector has been a net sink since 2020, according to the submission published on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change’s website.
With planned policies and measures, the sector could reduce cumulative emissions by an estimated 2,296 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2025 and 2035, compared with a business-as-usual scenario, the document said.
The net sink target could raise the profile of forest protection, land restoration and other nature-based climate measures, said John Leo Algo, national coordinator of Aksyon Klima Pilipinas, a network of 40 civil-society organisations.
Forestry and other land use measures were excluded from the mitigation component of the Philippines’ 2021 nationally determined contribution (NDC). Its 75 per cent emissions-reduction and avoidance target covered agriculture, waste, industry, transport and energy, while forestry was treated as a net carbon sink and addressed through adaptation measures.
The unconditional component of the target increased to 7 per cent, from 2.71 per cent in the Philippines’ 2021 NDC, while the conditional share on international finance, technology transfer and capacity-building support fell to 68 per cent from 72.29 per cent.
Although emissions reductions from forestry and land use will be needed to meet the country’s climate goals, they cannot substitute for a phase-out of fossil fuels, Algo argued.
“Actions such as reforestation and conservation of forest carbon stock will be critical to ensure not just avoidance, but natural removal of such climate pollution from our atmosphere,” Algo told Eco-Business. “Yet this must be complemented by decarbonisation, driven by transitioning away from fossil fuels. This is an unavoidable course of action that our government needs to make.”
Gerry Arances, executive director of think tank Center for Energy Ecology and Development (CEED), said the lack of a concrete fossil fuel phase-out commitment in the updated pledge was “alarming” and inconsistent with efforts to keep global warming below 1.5°C.
“Typhoon after typhoon, flood after flood, we are reminded of our vulnerabilities to the climate crisis driven by fossil fuel use,” Arances said in a statement. “With the transition away from fossils being non-negotiable to combating the climate crisis, the government’s lack of firm commitment to phase out fossil fuels signals less than minimal efforts to protect our communities.”
Arances also criticised the NDC’s 40 per cent renewable energy target for 2030, saying it was unchanged from the Philippine Energy Plan and insufficient to accelerate the transition from coal, gas and diesel.
He said the government should pursue a full phase-out of fossil fuels, including natural gas, alongside stronger measures to protect communities from flooding, typhoons, heatwaves and other climate impacts. The submission follows a delay in the release of the country’s updated NDCs that were expected to be released at COP30 in Belém, Brazil in November, as officials said they wanted to fine tune a submission that would be achievable, and then pushed back anew after the Middle East conflict triggered a fresh round of questions over the country’s long‑term energy plans.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries must communicate updated NDCs every five years. The latest round, known as NDC 3.0, was due by 10 February 2025 and was expected to set targets through 2035, reflect the first global stocktake and demonstrate progress beyond earlier pledges.
The Philippines’ updated plan comes amid continued pressure on governments to strengthen national climate action for the next phase of Paris Agreement implementation.
Laos and Myanmar are among the Southeast Asian countries yet to file updated climate pledges with the UN. Singapore was among the first 13 countries worldwide to meet the UNFCCC’s deadline, communicating its 2035 target on that day.
