The 2026 UN climate negotiations (COP31) will be defined by many issues: the 1.5°C overshoot, the future of multiple work programmes and whether negotiators will have the courage to even mention “fossil fuels” in the decision text, among others.
But another issue will underpin many of the positions and statements brought to Antalya: the Super El Niño, whose peak is expected to begin just before the conference.
Projected to be the strongest El Niño in decades, its significance goes beyond its potential magnitude. It provides a test of whether the decisions, or lack thereof, at the upcoming negotiations will actually respond to the needs experienced by the most vulnerable communities, especially within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).
Loss and damage
After the glacial collapse that triggered the recent flash floods in Nepal, we could see similarly severe losses and damage through early 2027, except at the opposite end of the climate extreme spectrum.
Even without a permanent loss and damage (L&D) agenda at COP31, the issue is drawing greater attention because of its implications for the most vulnerable countries and communities. The combination of a very strong El Niño and global warming could cause an unprecedented scale of drought-related losses and damage across many countries. Let’s not forget that higher sea surface temperatures also provide more favourable conditions for super typhoons, which threaten nations across Asean.
The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) is already struggling on many fronts, and not just because it is massively underfunded. Its response to the tragedy in Nepal already shows that it remains too bureaucratic to respond rapidly to climate-induced losses and damage, which contradicts what it is intended to do.
The L&D agenda at COP31 covers only progress reporting under the FRLD and the Warsaw International Mechanism. But if Parties, especially developed countries, are serious about preventing harm to the most vulnerable, establishing a permanent L&D agenda that tackles substantive improvements rather than procedural checks must be among the decisions made in Antalya.
Such substantive improvements, including scaling up L&D finance, enabling anticipatory action and more rapid responses, and making polluters pay, must be made as soon as possible. Ahead of the next FRLD Board meeting, COP31 provides the best opportunity for Asean to make a stronger stance on L&D known.
Adaptation
The impacts of the Super El Niño over the coming months will provide the region with the latest preview of what to expect more of in the era of the 1.5°C overshoot. This heightens the significance of long-term adaptation measures, which should place adaptation workstreams high on the agenda of Asean members at COP31.
Member states should highlight how the interconnectedness of food, water, health, energy and ecosystems could amplify the anticipated impacts of the Super El Niño. This calls for a stronger position on tripling adaptation finance by 2035, a decision from COP30. The region should fight for a clear baseline of 2025, at the earliest, given rising adaptation needs and the need to restore the detail deleted from last year’s negotiations.
Additional, predictable, accessible and adequate finance, along with other means of implementation, such as technology and capacity-building support, must flow directly into the implementation of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). Further progress in defining the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) indicators must also come with technical and financial support to enable proper implementation, including for locally led solutions.
Another potential outcome relevant to Asean would be enhanced regional technical cooperation to address transboundary climate risks, from the Mekong Delta region to impacts on marine ecosystems between the Philippines and Indonesia.
Strengthening regional cooperation must be clearly stated as a priority in key adaptation documents, such as the Baku Adaptation Roadmap, as part of building longer-term climate resilience in the region. Decisions should require technical work on shared risk assessments, interoperable climate data systems and transboundary early-warning protocols.
This must also be reflected in tasks assigned to adaptation-related United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) bodies, such as the Adaptation Committee. Activities such as joint adaptation planning, regional knowledge exchange and capacity-building sessions among Asean neighbours must be included, coupled with dedicated financial and technical support from the likes of the Adaptation Fund and the Green Climate Fund.
Mitigation
No Asean joint statement should be regarded as complete without a prominent call to address the root cause of the 1.5°C overshoot: fossil fuels.
The region is among those hardest hit by oil price hikes due to the war in the Middle East. As fossil fuel use continues to drive global warming beyond the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal for the foreseeable future, fossil fuel giants continue to earn far too much at the expense of communities and ecosystems.
Asean truly needs to commit to transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFF), coupled with just transition pathways aligned with low-emissions, climate-resilient development. The justification of “energy security” for refusing to commit to TAFF rings hollow if it comes at the cost of security in food, water, health and almost everything else, especially with the peak of the Super El Niño approaching.
Let’s not forget that Asean governments have a responsibility to be 1.5°C-aligned, as set out in the 2025 International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion on climate change. How these countries speak and act at COP31 will determine whether they are living up to their words and mandates.
John Leo Algo is national coordinator of Aksyon Klima Pilipinas, a nonprofit network of 40 civil society organisations like Greenpeace Philippines, WWF Philippines, and the Manila Observatory.
