One in 20 cars sold in Victoria in 2020 will be electric - doubling to one in 10 by 2030 - according to a new report commissioned by the Department of Transport.
The report, by consultant AECOM, estimates that electric vehicles will benefit the economy by between $1.8 billion and $23.3 billion over the next three decades due to lower running costs and reduced pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
It predicts a move to hybrid (electric and petrol) vehicles in the short term, with the longer-term shift to electric cars determined by the relative purchase price, the cost of petrol, the range the cars can travel and the availability of charging infrastructure.
The department is conducting a five-year trial into electric vehicles, with 60 electric cars given to households this year to provide feedback.
About 60 charging stations will be installed around greater Melbourne (including 12 in the City of Melbourne) by early 2013.
Department figures show there are a further 85 electric vehicles in Victoria outside the trial.
With a range of up to 160km, the department said electric cars were best suited to city driving and it estimated most city households would need to recharge once every three days.
“More infrastructure and better batteries will allow (electric vehicles) to be used for intercity and interstate trips in the future,” a department statement said.
“It’s likely that most people who get an electric car early on will either be two-car families, or will be happy to rent a car or take a plane or a train for longer trips.”
While there is overseas evidence that electric vehicles produce less emissions over their life cycle than petrol vehicles (but more emissions during production), the trial will investigate whether this will be the case in Victoria.
